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ABSTRACT An increasing body of evidence has displayed upslope shifts in the high-diversity avian communities of tropical mountains. Such shifts have largely been attributed to warming climates, although their actual mechanisms remain poorly understood. One likely possibility is that changes in species-specific demographic rates underlie elevational range shifts. Fine-scale population monitoring and capture–mark–recapture (CMR) analysis could shed light on these mechanisms, but, until recently, analytical constraints have limited our ability to model multiple demographic rates across bird communities while accounting for transient individuals. Here, we used Bayesian hierarchical multi-species CMR models to estimate the apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rates of 17 bird species along an elevational gradient in the cloud forests of Honduras. For 6 species, we also modeled demographic rates across elevation and time. Although demographic rates varied among species, population growth rates tended to be higher in lower elevation species. Moreover, some species showed higher population growth rates at higher elevations, and elevational differences in growth rates were positively associated with previous estimates of upslope shifts at the study site. We also found that demographic rates showed contrasting trends across the duration of the study, with recruitment decreasing and apparent survival increasing, and stronger effects at lower elevations. Collectively, we provide the methodological tools to encourage more multi-species demographic analyses in other systems, while highlighting the potential for the demographic impacts of global change. We provide a Spanish translation in the Supplementary Materials.more » « less
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